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Document Type

Campus-Only Access for Five (5) Years

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Degree Program

Economics

Year Degree Awarded

Fall 2014

First Advisor

Arslan Razmi

Second Advisor

Gerald Epstein

Third Advisor

Christian Rojas

Subject Categories

Growth and Development | International Economics | Macroeconomics

Abstract

This dissertation examines the short and long run effects of the Great Recession on Latin America. For the short run, this study evaluates (i) the existence of a business cycle co-movement between the US and Latin America, (ii) the role of the Latin American export structure as an aspect that may amplify the growth spillover effects of the output fluctuations in the US, and (iii) the terms of trade as a determinant of the short run output fluctuations in Colombia, a primary commodity exporter that resembles the assumptions of open small dependent economies. Consistent with the historical evidence, the US GDP contraction in 2009 had a more severe short-run effect on non-primary commodity exporters that have the US as a key export market. Econometric evidence also shows that Latin America, on average, faces a process of decoupling with the US. China and other developing economies have recently become more important geo-economic sources of output fluctuations for Latin America. Regarding the long run, the dissertation identifies that the Latin American economic growth has mainly been based on an export-led growth regime. In particular, this study finds that the current account as a proportion of GDP is a positive and statistically significant correlate of economic growth. This growth regime is vulnerable to a recent development of the world economy in the aftermath of the Great Recession: shrinkage of global imbalances.

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