Start Date

7-1-2011 2:30 PM

End Date

7-1-2011 3:15 PM

Track

2. Track 2 - Poster Session

Subject Area

Travel and Tourism

Faculty Member

Muzaffer Uysal, PhD. Pamplin College of Business Hospitality and Tourism Management Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 361 Wallace Hall (0429) Blacksburg, VA 24061 E-mail: samil@vt.edu

Abstract

This study is Work In Progress and focuses on Phase 1 of the proposed study. Phase 2 will be implemented in spring 2011. The purpose of phase 1 is to introduce ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator) to the field of tourism demand studies. The proposed study is intended to develop a demand model in which tourist arrivals to Turkey from select EU countries will be used as the dependent variable. Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) along with more traditional variables such Interest Rate, Relative Price, and Relative Exchange Rate will be brought into the model as the independent demand determinants. Using a new independent variable, ESI and use of time series econometric models (such as Cointegration and Error Correction Models), the study will estimate a tourism demand function for the select markets of EU countries. It is hoped that the findings of this study, once implemented in phase 2, will enable policy makers to develop more focused marketing and fiscal policies to target visitors. In addition, the usefulness of ESI will be demonstrated and its policy implications will also be developed.

Keywords

Tourism demand, Economic Sentiment Indicators, econometric models

 
Jan 7th, 2:30 PM Jan 7th, 3:15 PM

Economic Sentiment Indicator as a demand determinant in tourism: A Case of Turkey

This study is Work In Progress and focuses on Phase 1 of the proposed study. Phase 2 will be implemented in spring 2011. The purpose of phase 1 is to introduce ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator) to the field of tourism demand studies. The proposed study is intended to develop a demand model in which tourist arrivals to Turkey from select EU countries will be used as the dependent variable. Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) along with more traditional variables such Interest Rate, Relative Price, and Relative Exchange Rate will be brought into the model as the independent demand determinants. Using a new independent variable, ESI and use of time series econometric models (such as Cointegration and Error Correction Models), the study will estimate a tourism demand function for the select markets of EU countries. It is hoped that the findings of this study, once implemented in phase 2, will enable policy makers to develop more focused marketing and fiscal policies to target visitors. In addition, the usefulness of ESI will be demonstrated and its policy implications will also be developed.