Type of Submission
This study attempted to identify, quantify, and explain the possible impact the recession had on restaurant stock performance in comparison with the S&P 500 index using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with Intervention analysis approach and t-tests. Based on the North American Industry Classification System, limited-service (NAICS code 722211) and full-service restaurant segments (NAICS code722110) were examined. The results of this study suggest that the limited-service restaurant segment was recession-proof and its stock index outperformed that of both the full-service restaurant segment and the S&P 500 index. The findings of this study will not only provide the industry and investors with empirical evidence of restaurant performance during and after the recession; but also fill the gap of literature by applying ARIMA with Intervention Analysis in identifying the lag time of impact an event has on time series in hospitality related research.
Zheng, Tianshu; Farrish, John; and Wang, Xiaofan
"How Did Different Restaurant Segments Perform Differently through the Recession? An ARIMA with Intervention Analysis on US Restaurant Stock Indices,"
Journal of Hospitality Financial Management:
2, Article 1.
Available at: http://scholarworks.umass.edu/jhfm/vol20/iss2/1