Type of Submission

Refereed Article


This study attempted to identify, quantify, and explain the possible impact the recession had on restaurant stock performance in comparison with the S&P 500 index using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with Intervention analysis approach and t-tests. Based on the North American Industry Classification System, limited-service (NAICS code 722211) and full-service restaurant segments (NAICS code722110) were examined. The results of this study suggest that the limited-service restaurant segment was recession-proof and its stock index outperformed that of both the full-service restaurant segment and the S&P 500 index. The findings of this study will not only provide the industry and investors with empirical evidence of restaurant performance during and after the recession; but also fill the gap of literature by applying ARIMA with Intervention Analysis in identifying the lag time of impact an event has on time series in hospitality related research.