Publication Date
2021
Journal or Book Title
Scientific Reports
Abstract
Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.
ISSN
2045-2322
ORCID
Cuevas-Maraver, Jesus/0000-0002-7162-5759
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82932-8
Volume
11
Issue
1
License
UMass Amherst Open Access Policy
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Funder
EPSRCUK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC); US National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [PHY-1602994, DMS-1809074]; Leverhulme TrustLeverhulme Trust; C3.ai Digital Transformation Institute
Recommended Citation
Fokas, A. S.; Cuevas-Maraver, J.; and Kevrekidis, P. G., "Easing COVID-19 Lockdown Measures While Protecting the Older Restricts the Deaths to the Level of the Full Lockdown" (2021). Scientific Reports. 1320.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82932-8