Abstract

This study examines the dynamic employment behavior of Hawaii’s tourism related industries due to external shocks. A better understanding of how industrial employments differ in response to external shocks may be useful to policymakers and other stakeholders in designing economic development policies or response programs to help mitigate adverse employment impacts. Using VAR analysis, the empirical results suggest that shocks in visitor arrivals and crude oil prices significantly help predict the employment changes in the food and drinks sector. Statistically significant bi-directional relationship exist between visitor arrivals and employment in the accommodation sector. No strong relationship was detected between shocks in visitors’ arrivals, interest rate changes, and crude oil prices with the employment behavior in arts and entertainment sector. The statistically significant uni-directional causal relationship in the stochastic changes in interest rate to visitor arrivals validates the great sensitivity of demand for travel to financing constraints.

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Taking the Pulse of Tourism in Hawaii

This study examines the dynamic employment behavior of Hawaii’s tourism related industries due to external shocks. A better understanding of how industrial employments differ in response to external shocks may be useful to policymakers and other stakeholders in designing economic development policies or response programs to help mitigate adverse employment impacts. Using VAR analysis, the empirical results suggest that shocks in visitor arrivals and crude oil prices significantly help predict the employment changes in the food and drinks sector. Statistically significant bi-directional relationship exist between visitor arrivals and employment in the accommodation sector. No strong relationship was detected between shocks in visitors’ arrivals, interest rate changes, and crude oil prices with the employment behavior in arts and entertainment sector. The statistically significant uni-directional causal relationship in the stochastic changes in interest rate to visitor arrivals validates the great sensitivity of demand for travel to financing constraints.