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Abstract

This study measures the degree of dispersion of global tourism over the past two decades and then predicts the future dispersion of global tourism. Gini coefficients are used to measure the dispersion of international tourism arrivals and are calculated over the last 20 years using data from the UNWTO. The Gini coefficient is found to be decreasing over time, with time explaining a vast majority of the variance (R2=0.959). Using the same data, Markov transition matrixes are used to predict the future distribution of tourism based on changes in the distribution of tourism over the past 20 years.

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The Changing Distribution of Global Tourism: Evidence from Gini Coefficients and Markov Matrixes

This study measures the degree of dispersion of global tourism over the past two decades and then predicts the future dispersion of global tourism. Gini coefficients are used to measure the dispersion of international tourism arrivals and are calculated over the last 20 years using data from the UNWTO. The Gini coefficient is found to be decreasing over time, with time explaining a vast majority of the variance (R2=0.959). Using the same data, Markov transition matrixes are used to predict the future distribution of tourism based on changes in the distribution of tourism over the past 20 years.