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Scenario Planning: A Planning Tool for an Uncertain Future
Scenario Planning: A Planning Tool for an Uncertain Future
Abstract
This paper uses scenario planning as a tool to identify key external drivers, build plausible scenarios, and develop policies and strategies. Drawing on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Arizona as a case study, the purpose of this study was to develop a systematic scenario planning process that helps the agency in preparation for uncertainties. Two scenario workshops were conducted to cover a wide range of social and natural resource related issues. Various expert participants from universities, agencies, and community stakeholder groups were invited to participate and engage in scenario planning activities. The study developed plausible scenarios as well as policies and strategies for each scenario. The paper discusses methodological and practical implications.
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