Richard N. Palmer
This thesis investigates an approach for determining water resources vulnerability caused by climate change and applies it to a case-study for the New York City ater Supply System (NYCWSS).The results provide potential responses of the system to changes in climate and guidance that can inform short and long-term planning decisions.
This research models the hydrology and operations of the NYCWSS and includes a statistical model of turbidity concentration in the Ashokan Reservoir. Using a stochastic weather generator, incremental changes are made to precipitation and temperature and used to drive the coupled hydrology-simulation model. The results are aggregated and examined to show the sensitivity of the system, and in particular Ashokan Reservoir turbidity, to changes in climate. The results are briefly compared with the latest GCM data to provide insight into expected changes in turbidity over the next half-century.