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As stipulated in the independent evaluation contract, CIE will implement baseline surveys at households, facilities (schools, health clinics), and communities using national randomly-selected samples in all three countries. These will be followed up in 2012 with a targeted micro-survey and then with full national-level random administrations in late 2013 or early 2014. The rationale for the baseline surveys and the subsequent full follow-up survey administrations is to measure change along key variables over time. The rationale for the mid-term micro-survey is to measure targeted change, using the full baseline study (including case studies) as a guide.

Given the key evaluation questions to be addressed, the baseline surveys need to establish 1) citizens’ knowledge about government provision of the basic services of education, health, water; 2) baseline conditions in schools, health facilities, and communities (quality of service); 2) citizens’ access to and use of information channels and media; 4) self-perceptions and indicators of agency and action; and 5) test emerging and intriguing hypotheses. For each broad purpose, establishing what is known at this point enables assessments of change over time. Thus, the overall design of the evaluation calls for follow-up randomized national-level surveys in Year 5 to assess changes and to test the same and new hypotheses. Obviously, baseline surveys are designed to establish initial conditions against which effects or changes can be compared.