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The rapid transition to an energy system based on renewable electricity sources instead of fossil fuels is one of the great challenges facing humanity. It also offers a unique opportunity to reshape our society to be more equitable and more sustainable. To address this challenge, ELEVATE draws upon expertise in a wide range of research fields to train PhD students to address resilience and equity in the energy transition. Our students produce resilient and equity-driven innovations, while developing effective leadership and communication skills ideally suited to engaging stakeholders. Through strategic partnerships with stakeholders at the front lines of the energy transition, the program develops a collaborative community, working together to find optimal energy solutions with local to global-scale benefits.
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Publication Weatherization and Energy Security: a Review of Recent Events in ERCOT(2022-01-01) Zakeri, Golbon; HMaria Hernandez, Maria; Lackner, Matthew; Manwell, JamesPurpose of Review This review addresses the question of energy security. With the transition of energy generation fleet to cleaner, more sustainable electricity production, energy security is a topic of increasing importance. Recent Findings Recent events in Texas brought the concept of energy security to the fore. In this review, we examine the makeup of electricity generation and the causes of the February 2021 blackout of Texas. We will investigate the cost/benefit of winterization in Texas and ask why this was not undertaken subsequent to a similar event in 2011. Summary We investigate the case of Texas blackout of February 2021 and estimate the cost of prevention of this undesirable outcome. We suggest that market mechanisms need to be in place to incentivize electricity producers to ensure energy security going forward.Publication VPeak: Exploiting Volunteer Energy Resources for Flexible Peak Shaving(2021-01-01) Bovornkeeratiroj, Phuthipong; Wamburu, John; Irwin, David; Shenoy, PrashantTraditionally, utility companies have employed demand response for large loads or deployed centralized energy storage to alleviate the effects of peak demand on the grid. The advent of Internet of Things (IoT) and the proliferation of networked energy devices have opened up new opportunities for coordinated control of smaller residential loads at large scales to achieve similar benefits. In this paper, we present VPeak, an approach that uses residential loads volunteered by their owners for coordinated control by a utility for grid optimizations. Since the use of volunteer resources comes with hard limits on how frequently they can be used by a remote utility, we present machine learning techniques for carefully selecting which days to operate these loads based on expected peak demand. VPeak uses a distributed and heterogeneous pool of volunteer loads to implement flexible peak shaving that can either selectively target hotspots within the distribution network or perform grid-wide peak shaving. Our results show that VPeak is able to shave up to 26% of the total demand when selectively shaving peaks at local hotspots and up to 46.7% of the demand for grid-wide peak shaving.Publication The Sustainability Of Decarbonizing The Grid: A Multi-Model Decision Analysis Applied To Mexico(2022-01-01) Mercado Fernandez, Rodrigo; Baker, ErinMexico recognizes its vulnerability to the effects of climate change, including sea level rise, increasing average temperatures, more frequent extreme weather events and changes to the hydrological cycle. Because of these concerns Mexico has a vested interest in developing sustainable strategies for mitigating climate change as it develops its electricity grid. In this study, we use a set of sustainability criteria to evaluate a number of model-derived pathways for the electricity grid aimed at meeting Mexico's climate goals. We use a multi-step approach, combining pathways from multiple large scale global models with a detailed electricity model to leverage geographic information into our multi-criteria sustainability analysis. We summarize the overall ranking of each expansion plan with the use of the weighted sum method. We find that the expansion plans with more than 20% of energy coming from carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies tend to be less sustainable. While CCS technologies have low GHG emissions, they have high air pollution and water-use and require the development of extensive pipeline networks. In particular, these CCS characteristics pose concerns from an environmental justice perspective as high air pollution and water-use can significantly effect local communities: the plan with the most CCS has an extra 14 kg/GWh of weighted air pollution emissions and 199,000 liters/GWh of weighted water use compared to the plan with the most renewables. This analysis provides novel insights on tradeoffs that decisions makers must consider when looking at different sustainable development options to reach long term climate goals.Publication PeakTK: An Open Source Toolkit for Peak Forecasting in Energy Systems(2021-01-01) Bovornkeeratiroj, Phuthipong; Wamburu, John; Irwin, David; Shenoy, PrashantAs the electric grid undergoes the transition to a carbon free future, many new techniques for optimizing the grid’s energy usage and carbon footprint are being designed. A common technique used by many approaches is to reduce the energy usage of the grid’s peak demand periods since doing so is beneficial for reducing the carbon usage of the grid. Consequently, the design of peak forecasting methods that predict when and how much peak demand will be seen is at the heart of many energy optimization approaches. In this paper, we present PeakTK, an open-source toolkit and reference datasets for peak forecasting in energy systems. PeakTK implements a range of peak forecasting methods that have been proposed recently and exposes them through well-defined interfaces and library modules. Our goal is to improve reproducibility of energy systems research by providing a common framework for evaluating and comparing new peak forecasting algorithms. Further, PeakTK provides libraries to enable researchers and practitioners to easily incorporate peak forecasting methods into their research when implementing higher level grid optimizations. We discuss the design and implementation of PeakTK and present case studies to demonstrate how PeakTK can be used for forecasting or quantitative comparisons of energy optimization methods.Publication A Moment in the Sun: Solar Nowcasting from Multispectral Satellite Data using Self-Supervised Learning(2022-01-01) Bansal, Akansha Singh; Bansal, Trapit; Irwin, DavidABSTRACT Solar energy is now the cheapest form of electricity in history. Unfortunately, signi.cantly increasing the electric grid’s fraction of solar energy remains challenging due to its variability, which makes balancing electricity’s supply and demand more di.cult. While thermal generators’ ramp rate—the maximum rate at which they can change their energy generation—is .nite, solar energy’s ramp rate is essentially in.nite. Thus, accurate near-term solar forecasting, or nowcasting, is important to provide advance warnings to adjust thermal generator output in response to variations in solar generation to ensure a balanced supply and demand. To address the problem, this paper develops a general model for solar nowcasting from abundant and readily available multispectral satellite data using self-supervised learning. Speci.cally, we develop deep auto-regressive models using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory networks (LSTM) that are globally trained across multiple locations to predict raw future observations of the spatio-temporal spectral data collected by the recently launched GOES-R series of satellites. Our model estimates a location’s near-term future solar irradiance based on satellite observations, which we feed to a regression model trained on smaller site-speci.c solar data to provide near-term solar photovoltaic (PV) forecasts that account for site-speci.c characteristics. We evaluate our approach for di.erent coverage areas and forecast horizons across 25 solar sites and show that it yields errors close to that of a model using ground-truth observations.Publication Sustainable Computing - Without the Hot Air(2022-01-01) Bashir, Noman; irwin, David; Shenoy, Prashant; Souza, AbelThe demand for computing is continuing to grow exponentially. This growth will translate to exponential growth in computing's energy consumption unless improvements in its energy-efficiency can outpace increases in its demand. Yet, after decades of research, further improving energy-efficiency is becoming increasingly challenging, as it is already highly optimized. As a result, at some point, increases in computing demand are likely to outpace increases in its energy-efficiency, potentially by a wide margin. Such exponential growth, if left unchecked, will position computing as a substantial contributor to global carbon emissions. While prominent technology companies have recognized the problem and sought to reduce their carbon emissions, they understandably focus on their successes, which has the potential to inadvertently convey the false impression that this is now, or will soon be, a solved problem. Such false impressions can be counterproductive if they serve to discourage further research in this area, since, as we discuss, eliminating computing's, and more generally society's, carbon emissions is far from a solved problem. To better understand the problem's scope, this paper distills the fundamental trends that determine computing's carbon footprint and their implications for achieving sustainable computing.Publication Towards Equity In Energy Efficiency Analyses(2021-01-01) Wamburu, John; Grazier, Emma; Irwin, David; Crago, Christine; Shenoy, PrashantThe electric grid has begun a profound transition from primarily using carbon-intensive energy to instead using carbon-free renewable energy. In parallel, smart meters and other sensors are now providing us unparalleled visibility into the energy-efficiency of building and grid operations. Researchers are actively using building and grid energy data from these sensors to develop analytics techniques, e.g., using machine learning, that can improve energy-efficiency and facilitate the energy transition. Unfortunately, much of this research ignores the impact of these analytics on equity. That is, while current data analytics techniques may accurately identify energy-inefficiencies, they generally do not contextualize the underlying reasons for these inefficiencies. For example, data analytics that identify the most energy-inefficient homes might motivate new programs that target these homes for subsidies to improve energy-efficiency. However, the most energy-inefficient homes might also correlate with those with the highest income that have less need for subsidies, and engage in the most energy wasteful behavior. In contrast, the most energy-efficient homes might be the homes that can least afford to waste (or even use) energy. In this paper, we use an example from recent research to illustrate the inequity of state-of-the-art energy analytics, and argue that energy analytics research should elevate equity to a first-class concern.Publication Data-driven Decarbonization of Residential Heating Systems: An Equity Perspective.(2022-01-01) Wamburu, John; Grazier, Emma; Irwin, David; Crago, Christine; Shenoy, PrashantSince heating buildings using natural gas, propane and oil makes up a significant proportion of the aggregate carbon emissions every year, there is a strong interest in decarbonizing residential heating systems using new technologies such as electric heat pumps. In this poster, we conduct a data-driven optimization study to analyze the potential of replacing gas heating with electric heat pumps to reduce carbon emissions in a city-wide distribution grid. We seek to not only reduce the carbon footprint of residential heating, but also show how to do so equitably. Our results show that lower income homes have an energy usage intensity 24% higher than that of high income ones. We propose equity-aware transition strategies that enforce equity and show that such strategies achieve significant levels of CO2 reduction while reducing the disparity in value of selected homes by 5× compared to a carbon-first approach.Publication Influence of Foundation Damping on Offshore Wind Turbine Monopile Design Loads(2022-01-01) Carswell, Wystan; Arwade, Sanjay R.; Johansson, Jörgen; DeGroot, Don J.The dynamic behavior of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) must be designed considering stochastic load amplitudes and frequencies from waves and mechanical loads associated with the spinning rotor during power production. The proximity of the OWT natural frequency to excitation frequencies combined with low damping necessitates a thorough analysis of sources of damping; of these sources of damping, least is known about the contributions of damping from soil-structure interaction (foundation damping). This paper studies the influence of foundation damping on cyclic load demand for monopile-supported OWTs considering the design situations of power production, emergency shutdown, and parked conditions. The NREL 5 MW Reference Turbine was modeled using the aero-hydro-elastic software FAST and included equivalent linear foundation stiffness and damping matrices. These matrices were determined using an iterative approach with FAST mudline loads as input to a soil-pile finite element software which calculates hysteretic material damping. Accounting for foundation damping in time history analysis can reduce cyclic foundation moment demand by as much as 30% during parked conditions, 25–33% during emergency shutdown, but only 2–3% reduction during power production without wave and wind misalignment. The calculated foundation damping from the emergency shutdown cases agreed with experimental testing performed in similar site conditions.Publication A just energy transition requires research at the intersection of policy and technology(2022-01-01) Baker, ErinThe current energy system, in the US and around the world, is rife with inequities. The coming energy transition to a low carbon world has the potential to right some of these; but, without intention, it is more likely to perpetuate the current inequities. Enabling a just energy transition will require multiple categories of action, including fair policies and regulations; data and metrics; and knowledge generation. I focus on this last point, and particularly research at intersection of energy technology and social equity.Publication Breaking Wave Hazard Estimation Model for the U.S. Atlantic Coast(2021-01-01) Hallowell, Spencer TAs offshore wind development is in its infancy along the U.S. Atlantic Coast challenges arise due to the effects of strong storms such as hurricanes. Breaking waves on offshore structures induced by hurricanes are of particular concern to offshore structures due to high magnitude impulse loads caused by wave slamming. Prediction of breaking wave hazards is important in offshore design for load cases using long mean return periods of environmental conditions. A breaking wave hazard estimation model (BWHEM) is introduced that provides a means for assessing breaking hazard at long mean return periods over a large domain along the U.S. Atlantic Coast. The BWHEM combines commonly used breaking criteria with the Inverse First Order Method of producing environmental contours and is applied in a numerical study using a catalog of stochastic hurricanes. The result of the study shows that breaking wave hazard estimation is highly sensitive to the breaking criteria chosen. Criteria including wave steepness and seafloor slope were found to predict breaking conditions at shorter return periods than criteria with only wave height and water depth taken into consideration. Breaking hazard was found to be most important for locations closer to the coast, where breaking was predicted to occur at lower mean return periods than locations further offshore.Publication A perspective on equity implications of net zero energy systems(2021-01-01) Baker, Erin; Azevedo, Inês MLWe present examples of energy inequity, in both the current system and in potential net zero systems, and lay out some research needs in order to center equity in the study of net zero energy systems. •Our current energy systems are inequitable across several dimensions. •We must recognize and address barriers to a just and equitable net zero energy system. •We highlight inequities in energy burden and energy insecurity; health consequences of the energy system; and decision making power. •There is a need to define, quantify, and explicitly model equity outcomes in net zero systems. •There is a need to better understand the equity impact of existing policies and programs. •Energy systems researchers must include voices from marginalized communities.Publication The Dean’s Racial Justice Curriculum Challenge(2022-01-01) Civjan, S; Baker, Erin; Wojda, Samantha; Mchenga, Promise; Tooker, Nick; Uddin, Esha; Wharton, Hannah; Chang, Sophia; Ciemny, Lia; Thornton, Jacqueline; Burleson, Wayne; Rees, PaulaThis Work in Progress paper will present the College of Engineering Dean’s Racial Justice Curriculum Challenge. This challenge tasks all faculty in the college to use their engineering problem-solving skills to develop creative ways to incorporate issues of diversity, equity, inclusion, and racial justice in every class we teach. The challenge was inspired by our students, who requested a greater connection between the technical content of classes and real world issues, in particular the role engineers play in either fostering inclusive solutions or contributing to the propagation of inequities. The intent is to engage faculty in the development of new curriculum, and success was measured by the level of engagement, and featured direct student feedback into the curriculum ideas. Starting in 2020-2021 academic year, we challenged every faculty member to contribute to the Dean’s Curriculum Challenge. Each lesson plan was reviewed by a team of students, and at least one was highlighted each week. We received 67 lesson plans from 45 faculty members, impacting 52 courses. Several courses included more than one racial justice themed lesson during the semester. Faculty participation rates were higher in Fall 2020, but varied across departments: 33% of biomedical engineering (BME), 7% of civil engineering (CE), 61% of chemical engineering (CHE), 15% of electrical and computer engineering (ECE), and 26% of mechanical and industrial engineering (MIE). In Spring 2021, 83% of BME, 14% of CE, 26% of CHE, 5% of MIE, and 33% of our Junior Year Writing faculty participated. In total, 3 freshmen, 10 sophomore, 12 junior, 8 senior, 12 senior/graduate, and 9 graduate level classes were impacted. In Fall 2021 we added a second challenge faculty could contribute to: the Inclusive Design challenge. Thus far, we have had 5 submissions from 3 faculty members and 1 graduate student teaching fellow. In addition, the challenge inspired individual department “brainstorming sessions” to discuss pedagogy and best practices for introducing these topics into a variety of class types. This paper will describe the lessons learned as the Dean’s Curriculum Challenge has been implemented as well as plans for sustaining and further supporting the challenge. This will include types of lesson plans, activities, and class discussions that were introduced. Once the program has been established, data will be collected from faculty on what they found effective and whether they continued these or other related activities in future semesters. In the 2021-2022 academic year, several highlighted submissions were presented by the faculty to a wider audience within the college.