The integrated probability of development (probDevelop) is derived from an extraordinarily complex urban growth model described in detail in the technical document on urban growth (McGarigal et al 2017). The urban growth model is one of the major landscape change drivers in our Landscape Change, Assessment and Design (LCAD) model, in which it functions to simulate the stochastic growth of low-, moderate- and highintensity development during each 10-year timestep of a 70-year simulation between 2010- 2080. Because the urban growth model simulates the spatial footprint of development as a stochastic process, the development that occurs in any one simulation is merely a single stochastic realization of what could happen. Thus, any single urban growth realization is not particularly useful in landscape design. Instead, we developed this product to represent the integrated probability of development occurring between 2010-2080, which accounts for the type (low-, medium-, and high-intensity), amount and spatial pattern of development. This index represents the probability of development integrated across all of the possible development transitions occurring sometime between 2010 and 2080 at the 30 m cell level.
McGarigal, Kevin; Plunkett, Ethan; Compton, Brad; DeLuca, Bill; and Grand, Joanna, "Designing Sustainable Landscapes: Probability of Development" (2018). Data and Datasets. 51.