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Author ORCID Identifier
Open Access Dissertation
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Year Degree Awarded
Month Degree Awarded
Causal modeling is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. Active communities of researchers in machine learning, statistics, social science, and other fields develop and enhance algorithms that learn causal models from data, and this work has produced a series of impressive technical advances. However, evaluation techniques for causal modeling algorithms have remained somewhat primitive, limiting what we can learn from the experimental studies of algorithm performance, constraining the types of algorithms and model representations that researchers consider, and creating a gap between theory and practice. We argue for expanding the standard techniques for evaluating algorithms that construct causal models. Specifically, we argue for the addition of evaluation techniques that use interventional measures rather than structural or observational measures, and that evaluate with those measures on empirical data rather than synthetic data. We survey the current practice in evaluation and show that, while the evaluation techniques we advocate are rarely used in practice, they are feasible and produce substantially different results than using structural measures and synthetic data. We also provide a protocol for generating observational-style data sets from experimental data, allowing the creation of a large number of data sets suitable for evaluation of causal modeling algorithms. We then perform a large-scale evaluation of seven causal modeling methods over 37 data sets, drawn from randomized controlled trials, as well as simulators, real-world computational systems, and observational data sets augmented with a synthetic response variable. We find notable performance differences when comparing across data from different sources. This difference demonstrates the importance of using data from a variety of sources when evaluating any causal modeling methods.
Gentzel, Amanda, "Improving Evaluation Methods for Causal Modeling" (2021). Doctoral Dissertations. 2180.