Razmi, Arslan

Job Title

Associate Professor, Department of Economics

Last Name

Razmi

First Name

Arslan

Discipline

Economics

Expertise

Development economics
History of economic thought
International trade
Open economy macroeconomics
Political economy

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 16

Imposing a balance of payment constraint on the Kaldorian model of cumulative causation
(2011-10) Razmi, Arslan
We combine two strands of Post Keynesian growth theory by imposing a balance of payments constraint on a Kaldorian cumulative causation model. The effects of external and internal shocks, and the degree to which cumulative causation comes into play depends on the exchange rate and capital account regimes. Exports act as the only exogenous drivers of growth only under a regime of fixed exchange rates and in the absence of relative price effects. Under flexible exchange rates, by contrast, it is internal demand that serves as the only exogenous driver of of growth. Moreover, regardless of the type of shock, the presence of cumulative causation does not boost growth, although it may render growth more sustainable.
Montenegro's Unilateral Euroization
(2018) Razmi, Arslan
Unilateral euroization is underexplored even in comparison to unilateral dollarization (taken to mean the adoption of the US dollar as legal tender). This paper attempts to partly fill this gap in the literature by investigating the case of Montenegro, which is one of the two countries that have unilaterally adopted the euro as the legal tender. Montenegro's limited monetary policy options make the nature of business cycles important. The evidence presented here suggests that Montenegro has a low degree of synchronization, limited structural similarity, and weak trade integration with the Eurozone. Moreover, there is limited evidence for endogenous structural assimilation following euroization. The case for currency union is weak for Montenegro and appears to be defensible only on grounds of policy credibility.
The exchange rate, diversification, and distribution in a modified Ricardian model with a continuum of goods
(2010-09) Ramzi, Arslan
Several recent empirical and theoretical studies have revived interest in the relationship between the level of the exchange rate and economic development. This paper develops a dynamic model based on the Ricardian framework with a continuum of goods to consider the issue from a somewhat different perspective. In the short run, a devaluation can boost profits in spite of real wage rigidity. Moreover, the resulting diversification can offset the negative consequences for the trade balance of higher employment and profitability at home. Over the longer run, and in the presence of learning-by-accumulation, the initial boost to profits and investment induced by a devaluation could enable a country to gain a permanent foothold in new sectors at a higher real wage. While directly suppressing the real wage could also lead to diversification, what makes nominal devaluations a particularly useful tool is that these make it possible to expand domestic profits while limiting internal distributional con.ict and the ensuing negative effects on development.
Environmental Macroeconomics: Simple Stylized Frameworks for Short-Run Analysis
(2013) Razmi, Arslan
Environmental economics has mostly focused on micro issues pertaining to welfare and efficiency analysis. I develop a general framework to address short-run issues both for a closed economy and for an open one where emission permits are globally traded. Fiscal policy and emission permit issuance can both be used as short-run stabilization tools in a closed economy although the former is ineffective in a small open economy. In a large open economy, issuing emission permits in excess of international agreements remains an effective instrument, although it acts as a beggar-thy-neighbor policy, highlighting the crucial role of global monitoring on macroeconomic grounds.
Sustained Investment Surges
(2017) Libman, Emiliano; Montecino, Juan Antonio; Razmi, Arslan
Existing empirical studies have focused on determinants of investment. We focus instead on episodes of accelerated capital stock growth that last eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low growth regions, but more so in middle income and Asian countries. After identifying 175 such episodes between 1950-2014, we employ probit analysis to explore their characteristics. Turning points in investment tend to be preceded by undervalued real exchange rates, macroeconomic stability (low inflation), and net capital outflows (especially portfolio outflows). We also find strong evidence for a negative correlation with the capital to output ratio and per capita GDP, and a positive correlation with a human capital index. Investment surges appear to be associated with accelerated structural change in the economy.
Real exchange rates and the long-run effects of aggregate demand in economies with underemployment
(2012-04) Skott, Peter; Rapetti, Martin; Razmi, Arslan
Successful economic development to a large extent derives from the mobilization of underemployed resources. Demand policy can play an important role. It is critical, however, to consider balance of payments constraints and to ensure an expansion of investment in the modern sector. A combination of investment promotion and exchange rate intervention may be required to achieve these goals.
The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: are Developing Countries Different?
(2011-05) Rapetti, Martin; Skott, Peter; Razmi, Arslan
Recent research has found a positive relationship between real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation and economic growth. Different rationales for this association have been offered, but they all imply that the mechanisms involved should be stronger in developing countries. Rodrik (2008) explicitly analyzed and found evidence that the RER-growth relationship is more prevalent in developing countries. We show that his finding is very sensitive to the criterion used to divide the sample between developed and developing countries. We then use alternative classification criteria and empirical strategies to evaluate the existence of asymmetries between groups of countries and find that the effect of currency undervaluation on growth is indeed larger and more robust for developing economies. However, the relationship between RER undervaluation and per capita GDP is non-monotonic.
Correctly Analyzing the Balance of Payments Constraint on Growth
(2013) Razmi, Arslan
The BPCG model provides an interesting hypothesis regarding economic growth. The main implication is that world demand places a constraint on individual country performance. I discuss this implication and argue that tests of the BPCG model have essentially been tests of the hypothesis that trade is balanced over the long run; a plausible hypothesis but one that need not hold mainly due to demand-side constraints. I then discuss the role of relative prices and investment, point out logical inadequacies in the traditional BPCG framework, and suggest an alternative theoretical framework to investigate its robustness. Our theoretical and empirical explorations contribute to reconciling evidence supporting the BPCG hypothesis with recent work that consistently finds an important role for the level of the real exchange rate and investment, independently of world demand growth.
The Real Exchange Rate and Development. Theory, Evidence, Issues, and Challenges
(2020) Demir, Firat; Razmi, Arslan
This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of the real exchange rate (RER) on international trade, economic development and growth. We summarize the main conceptual issues, discuss the relevance of the RER as an instrument of development policy, provide an overview of the macroeconomic and microeconomic mechanisms that link the RER to trade and long run growth and development, analyze the challenges – especially the disconnect between theory and data -- that often arise in empirical applications, and present new avenues for future research. In the process, we present some updated estimates and illustrative figures. The mechanisms through which the RER influences long-run growth and structural change outcomes remains a promising area of research and the relevance of individual channels in different contexts deserves much more careful investigation. Greater data availability should help fill some of these gaps in our understanding.
Growth and Distribution in Low Income Economies: Modifying Post Keynesian Analysis in Light of Theory and History
(2015) Razmi, Arslan
Growth in low-income developing economies with large sectors characterized by underemployment is unlikely to be wage-led in the traditional neo-Kaleckian sense of the term. Output and employment in the sectors of the economy producing non-tradable output could be demand-led, however, and policies directly aimed at more equitable distribution in these sectors could boost long-run growth. Some of the fast growing Asian economies may have been examples of wage-led growth in this rather different sense of the term. Over time, re-distributive measures in the traditional sector, such as land reforms, could lead to faster wage and output growth across the economy.