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Economic Optimization of Historic Preservation in National Parks: Future Transitions for Climate Change and Cultural Resources

Abstract
Climate change is increasingly posing great challenges to coastal cultural resources. Adapting from the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model developed by Xiao et al. (2019) that prioritizes historic preservation for 17 historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore across a 30-planning horizon, this study advances the OptiPres model to integrate a new management objective to identify the optimal adaptation plans to maximize the number of historical buildings receiving climate-focused adaptation actions and evaluate the trade-offs of adaptation actions under different budget scenarios. The results of this study not only calculate the changes in quantitative values of historical resources following preservation and adaptation treatments but also provide park managers guidance on how to prioritize climate adaptation decisions for historical resources under limited budgets. Moreover, the OptiPres Model enhances the transparency of values embedded in decision-making, supports the prioritization of climate-focused adaptation actions in historical preservation, and is transferable to other coastal parks.
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