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Carbon Prices and Inflation in a World of Shocks: Systematically significant prices and industrial policy targeting in Germany
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Abstract
Climate change and geopolitical tensions render supply shocks more likely, which can trigger inflation (shockflation). Additionally, the EU’s reliance upon an emissions trading system as its chief climate mitigation policy can give rise to inflation (carbonflation). Through simulations using an input-output price model for Germany, we show that the same systemically significant sectors – those essential for human livelihoods, production and commerce – present points of vulnerability for shockflation and also carbonflation, if carbon markets are the only policy tool deployed to cut emissions. A total of up to 91.3 percent of potential carbonflation can be attributed to just six systemically significant sectors. Our findings remain robust under varying assumptions regarding substitution and passthrough effects. The challenge for policymakers is to design policies that combine transformation with stabilization. Enhancing resilience, dampening price volatility and designing green industrial policies for these key sectors can reduce the macroeconomic risks of both carbonflation and shockflation.
Type
Working Paper
Date
2025-04