This study used a scenario planning method to devise four possible scenarios for tourism recovery in Arizona, U.S.A., a state highly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. A scenario planning session was attended by 24 experts representing key stakeholder groups within the tourism industry and public health, epidemiology, tourism, public policy, and transportation experts where participants selected six critical drivers of tourism recovery to develop possible scenarios. The critical drivers were public health status, performance of the economy, destination availability, government policy, consumer confidence, and leadership communication, with public health status and performance of the economy agreed to be the most influential but most uncertain on tourism recovery. The four scenarios represented a worst-case, best-case, and two mid-level scenarios in which tourism recovery efforts would need to operate. The implications and responsibilities of each scenario for governmental bodies, destination managers, tourism businesses, and planners is discussed and recommendations are given.