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Document Type

Open Access Thesis

Embargo Period

3-23-2018

Degree Program

Industrial Engineering & Operations Research

Degree Type

Master of Science in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research (M.S.I.E.O.R.)

Year Degree Awarded

2018

Month Degree Awarded

May

Abstract

An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations were directly comparable, the differences between the modes was not significant. Consequently, a carefully designed online elicitation may be used successfully to obtain accurate forecasts.

First Advisor

Erin Baker

Second Advisor

Jenni Marquard

Third Advisor

Shannon Roberts

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