Open Access Thesis
Industrial Engineering & Operations Research
Master of Science in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research (M.S.I.E.O.R.)
Year Degree Awarded
Month Degree Awarded
An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations were directly comparable, the differences between the modes was not significant. Consequently, a carefully designed online elicitation may be used successfully to obtain accurate forecasts.
Cruickshank, Claire, "Does the Elicitation Mode Matter? Comparing Different Methods for Eliciting Expert Judgement" (2018). Masters Theses. 634.