Publication Date



Working Paper 189


This paper evaluates the prospect of China’s energy supply and its impact on economic growth from now to 2050. After considering China’s domestic potential of coal, oil, and gas production, potential of energy imports from the rest of the world, as well as potential developments of renewable and nuclear energy, the paper finds that China is likely to face an insurmountable energy crisis beyond 2020 and even with optimistic assumptions, drastic declines of economic growth rate and the eventual end of economic growth cannot be avoided.

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