Getting Lucky: How Guessing Threatens the Validity of Performance Classifications

Authors

Brett P. Foley

DOI

https://doi.org/10.7275/1g6p-4y79

Abstract

There is always a chance that examinees will answer multiple choice (MC) items correctly by guessing. Design choices in some modern exams have created situations where guessing at random through the full exam—rather than only for a subset of items where the examinee does not know the answer—can be an effective strategy to pass the exam. This paper describes two case studies to illustrate this problem, discusses test development decisions that can help address the situation, and provides recommendations to testing professionals to help identify when guessing at random can be an effective strategy to pass the exam. Accessed 4,501 times on https://pareonline.net from February 10, 2016 to December 31, 2019. For downloads from January 1, 2020 forward, please click on the PlumX Metrics link to the right.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.

Recommended Citation

Foley, Brett P. (2019) "Getting Lucky: How Guessing Threatens the Validity of Performance Classifications," Practical Assessment, Research, and Evaluation: Vol. 21, Article 3.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7275/1g6p-4y79
Available at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/pare/vol21/iss1/3