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Modelling information usage and decision processes in new product introductions: An information processing perspective
Abstract
The objective of this study is to understand the problem solving process used in new product introductions, and other unstructured business problems. I hope this understanding will contribute to improved decision support systems. Based on Cognitive psychology theories (in particular, Anderson, 1983, 1987), a set of propositions were outlined and investigated by using a computer model. One application of the expert system shell, used here, is to try to model the expert's knowledge. The shell is used to develop a system that simulates the expert's approach to problem solving. The differences between this application and expert system development, are: (i) the focus is on trying to understand the mind of the expert, instead of trying to replace him; and (ii) the problem area is ill-structured, instead of narrow and well-defined. The introduction of new products into markets is an example of an ill-structured problem, in a business setting. In particular, identifying opportunities is to create new products--their future growth and competitiveness often depends on this. The method adopted, computer simulation, has both advantages and limitations. The advantages include: (i) in-depth analysis of the problem-solving process; (ii) operationalizing the theory; and (iii) producing a program that can act as a research vehicle for future projects. The limitations are: (i) small sample size; (ii) lack of clear-cut validation procedures; and (iii) dependence on shell features. The findings, for the most part, supported the propositions (i) The expert model clearly had more procedural knowledge than the textbook model. This supports the proceduralization theory of skill acquisition. (ii) Reasoning by analogy was used by both expert and novices. The use of weak methods by the expert does not support the theory. (iii) The expert adopted a forward reasoning strategy within a task agenda. This supports the hierarchical goal structure theory of Anderson. (iv) The use of soft information was also observed.
Subject Area
Business administration|Management|Artificial intelligence
Recommended Citation
Abraham, Thomas, "Modelling information usage and decision processes in new product introductions: An information processing perspective" (1990). Doctoral Dissertations Available from Proquest. AAI9022657.
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/dissertations/AAI9022657