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ORCID

https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7680-1371

Access Type

Open Access Thesis

Document Type

thesis

Degree Program

Industrial Engineering & Operations Research

Degree Type

Master of Science (M.S.)

Year Degree Awarded

2023

Month Degree Awarded

September

Abstract

The condition of multimorbidity — the presence of two or more medical conditions in an individual — is a growing phenomenon worldwide. In the United States, multimorbid patients represent more than a third of the population and the trend is steadily increasing in an already aging population. There is thus a pressing need to understand the patterns in which multimorbidity occurs, and to better understand the nature of the care that is required to be provided to such patients.

In this thesis, we use data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) from the years 2011 to 2015 to identify combinations of multiple chronic conditions (MCCs). We first quantify the significant heterogeneity observed in these combinations and how often they are observed across the five years. Next, using two criteria associated with each combination -- (a) the annual prevalence and (b) the annual median expenditure -- along with the concept of non-dominated Pareto fronts, we determine the degree of impact each combination has on the healthcare system. Our analysis reveals that combinations of four or more conditions are often mixtures of diseases that belong to different clinically meaningful groupings such as the metabolic disorders (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia); musculoskeletal conditions (osteoarthritis, spondylosis, back problems etc.); respiratory disorders (asthma, COPD etc.); heart conditions (atherosclerosis, myocardial infarction); and mental health conditions (anxiety disorders, depression etc.).

Next, we use unsupervised learning techniques such as association rule mining and hierarchical clustering to visually explore the strength of the relationships/associations between different conditions and condition groupings. This interactive framework allows epidemiologists and clinicians (in particular primary care physicians) to have a systematic approach to understand the relationships between conditions and build a strategy with regards to screening, diagnosis and treatment over a longer term, especially for individuals at risk for more complications. The findings from this study aim to create a foundation for future work where a more holistic view of multimorbidity is possible.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.7275/35999040.0

First Advisor

Hari Balasubramanian

Second Advisor

Chaitra Gopalappa

Third Advisor

Ana Muriel

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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