Off-campus UMass Amherst users: To download campus access dissertations, please use the following link to log into our proxy server with your UMass Amherst user name and password.
Non-UMass Amherst users: Please talk to your librarian about requesting this dissertation through interlibrary loan.
Dissertations that have an embargo placed on them will not be available to anyone until the embargo expires.
ORCID
N/A
Access Type
Open Access Thesis
Document Type
thesis
Degree Program
Industrial Engineering & Operations Research
Degree Type
Master of Science in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research (M.S.I.E.O.R.)
Year Degree Awarded
2018
Month Degree Awarded
May
Abstract
An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations were directly comparable, the differences between the modes was not significant. Consequently, a carefully designed online elicitation may be used successfully to obtain accurate forecasts.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.7275/11837720
First Advisor
Erin Baker
Second Advisor
Jenni Marquard
Third Advisor
Shannon Roberts
Recommended Citation
Cruickshank, Claire, "Does the Elicitation Mode Matter? Comparing Different Methods for Eliciting Expert Judgement" (2018). Masters Theses. 634.
https://doi.org/10.7275/11837720
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/634