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ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2361-2125
Access Type
Open Access Thesis
Document Type
thesis
Degree Program
Mechanical Engineering
Degree Type
Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering (M.S.M.E.)
Year Degree Awarded
2019
Month Degree Awarded
May
Abstract
To impede the progress of climate change, many policy makers are considering avenues to decarbonize electricity production. In addition to decarbonization, policy makers must consider how the cost of electricity will impact various stakeholders, balancing cost and social benefits. Offshore wind farms have the potential to produce affordable, carbon-free electricity, but they are a relatively new technology. The relative juvenescence of offshore wind lends itself to an uncertain future, regarding production costs. In this thesis, we seek to understand cost drivers behind offshore wind electricity by analyzing historic trends in offshore wind levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) through learning curves, characterizing how learning from producing a technology can lead to decreases in production costs. Additionally, we explore how the maturity of component technologies can affect the learning rate, and consequently the benefits of learning, of offshore wind. Finally, we create a robust data set to inform decision makers and researchers by marrying historic data to forward-looking expert elicitations.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.7275/14154953
First Advisor
Erin Baker
Second Advisor
Matthew Lackner
Third Advisor
James Manwell
Recommended Citation
Costa, Timothy, "Forecasting the Cost of Electricity Generated by Offshore Wind Turbines" (2019). Masters Theses. 765.
https://doi.org/10.7275/14154953
https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/765
Included in
Mechanical Engineering Commons, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons